A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
